Can Slot Machines Be Controlled

Reprinted from the American Casino Guide - 1999 edition

By Steve Bourie

Today, the average U.S. casino makes about 65% of its profits off its slot machines. Actually, that number representsall different kinds of a casino’s machines including video poker, video keno, video blackjack, and all other varietiesof electronic games. It didn’t use to be that way. In fact, it used to be just the opposite! Table games were the big revenue producers for the casinos and it was usually the men who playedthose games while their wives were kept busy at the slot machines.

Back in the 40s and early 50s, the old mechanical slots were full of gears and springs and were actually powered by pulling the handle which started the reels spinning. One of the problems withthese machines was that they were limited in the size of the jackpots they could offer because they could only accept one coin, plus the hoppers, still relying on those springs and gears, werelimited in the number of coins they could payout.

In the 60s the next generation of slots was introduced: the electromechanical. These machines still had a handle on the outside, but this time when you pulled it you activated an electricswitch which started a motor to spin the reels. These machines increased the popularity of slots because they allowed multiple coin play and they also had electrically-powered hoppers thatcould pay out much larger jackpots. In the 80s computer-controlled slots were introduced.

These new machines revolutionized the industry because everything was now controlled by a computer chip. These electronic marvels could offer progressive jackpots that were linked amongdifferent machines and it wasn’t long before this new computer technology led to the introduction of a new game called video poker.

Can’t touch this: Real slot machines controlled online. By Wayne Parry The Associated Press. Now, people can gamble on a real-life slot machine without touching it at all. Slot machines, the bread and butter of the casino industry, long ago lost their nicknames as “one-armed bandits” when manufacturers did away with the lever gamblers had to pull in order to activate the machine, replacing it with buttons. Now, people can gamble on a real-life slot machine without touching.

Today, the technology is so advanced that it allows slot machines that are hundreds of miles apart to be linked together by computer and offer jackpots that start at $10 million (SuperMegabucks), or video poker to be played from five different decks at the same time (Five Deck Frenzy).

Although the technology constantly changes, one thing remains the same: the person responsible for the operation of the slot department is the slot manager. It is the slot manager whodetermines how the slot department will be laid out and how much the machines will be set to pay back.

As a slot player, you’ve probably had a few questions about how a slot department works: How do they decide where to put those slot machines out on the casino floor? Is winning purely luck? Aresome machines really set to pay back more than others? And, if so, where do they put those better-paying machines? Well, the person with the answer to those questions would be the slot managerand I found two who were gracious enough to sit down for an interview in early 1998 to answer some questions about how their departments work and what goes into some of their businessdecisions.

The first stop was at the office of Rich Marino, Director of Slot Operations, at Luxor, the giant pyramid-shaped casino-resort in Las Vegas. Luxor is owned by Circus Circus, one of the largestgaming companies in the world, and the hotel itself, with more than 4,400 rooms, is the world’s third-largest hotel.

Rich began his career working downtown at the Union Plaza in 1976 in the coin room pulling the buckets under the machines. He eventually became the shift manager and a few years laterhe moved to the Gold Strike which later merged with Circus Circus. After a one-year stint at the Elgin Riverboat in Illinois, Rich returned to Las Vegas to help open the Luxor casino and he’sbeen there ever since.

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Rich has more than 200 employees working for him in his slot department, including change people, floor people, money runners, booth cashiers; supervisors, assistant shift managers, andmanagers.

Bourie: What are the job functions of the various people in your department?

Marino: A change person's main function is to provide our casino guests with change service without having to leave the machine. They also pay and verify jackpots on themachines. A booth cashier's function is to provide change and coin redemption service. Floor persons do minor repairs, fill empty machines, and verify jackpots. Supervisors verify the fillingof machines and the payment of jackpots up to certain amounts. Assistant Shift Managers and Shift Managers verify larger jackpots. ...and manage all operations on their particular shift.

Bourie: What goes into your decisions when you lay out the slot floor and are deciding where to put slot machines?

Marino: Traffic flow is the most important consideration when laying out a slot floor. Placing lower denomination machines in high traffic flow areas to insure that theproperty always looks busy. Also, I place the more popular machines in slower areas to draw people to those locations. I look for what types of machines people are playing and I also runreports continually: which locations are doing best, my top 10 machines, my types of machines, etc.

Bourie: What is the most popular machine?

Marino: Wheel of Fortune is the most popular right now. IGT (International Game Technology) took its reel-spinning slot machine and added a second-feature spinning wheel on topthat offers a bonus to players. They combined that with the popularity of the Wheel of Fortune game show and they now have the most successful machine on the market.

Actually, in the past 10 years, the slot industry has been kind of boring: just pull the handle and let the reels spin. Now, we have all these second-feature-type games with the WilliamsGames and the Vision IGT (International Game Technology) series. It makes it more exciting. It's not a local type of excitement, but a tourist type of excitement. Tourists like them a lot morethan the locals like them.

Bourie: I went to the gaming show recently and some of those newer slots seemed a little complicated.

Marino: In some cases, I have to actually sit down and play those games before I can figure them out. Initially, I thought that the customers would reject them, but it'snot happening. They are really taking to them. I believe a lot of the customers don't even know which combinations they’re winning on. All they know is that they’re having a good time andaccumulating a lot of credits.

Bourie: They actually don't know the winning combinations?

Marino: Yes, but they know they're having fun. They know there's money coming and they're winning credits and they're having a good time. That's the name of the game. Thereality is that the casino has the edge. You know that and I know that and everybody knows that, but what you’ve got to do is let people have as much fun as they can so that even if they don’twin, they're still having fun. It's an entertainment experience. If you're sitting there and take out a $20 bill, and you're playing and that $20 bill is gone and you don't hit anything, you'vegot a negative experience, you know what I mean?

Bourie: How about your decisions concerning the physical layout and where you want to place the machines?

Can Slot Machines Be Adjusted

Marino: What I try to do initially is create excitement by the front entrance of the casino so when a customer walks in they see people playing and having fun. I put popularnickel games upfront because it seems the nickel games always fill up first. (Pulls out the floor plan of the casino and points to various locations). As you can see I've located a couple ofnickel banks upfront and some Wheel of Fortune games next to them.

I try to draw the customers in and create a good flow through the casino. This is the entrance (pointing to a different area of the layout) from the Excalibur when you come over from the movingwalkway that links the two properties. Here, I try to create the same scenario by putting Wheel of Fortunes on this wall and the Williams games adjacent to them. And, as I said, I try to createexcitement in each area and I do that with the types of machines or denominations. The nickel games kind of shield the front areas and we also put them in the back areas because customers aregoing to find them there. They're going to find them no matter where you put them because they like playing nickel machines.

Bourie: I’d like to address some common beliefs that players have about slot machines and here’s the first one: “The casino can flip a switch to make the machines hold more.”Or, “the machines are set tighter on the weekends.” I’ve actually heard people say “there's a big convention coming this week and they're going to reset all the slots to make themtighter.” Any truth to those kinds of thoughts?

Marino: There is no magic switch. The only time we change a machine is when we convert it to a newer or more popular model. And, of course, when you get a new model, then youwould change the e-prom (the computer chip that controls the payback percentage) to that new model. The manufacturer initially sets all the percentages for the machines when ordered. Idetermine the hold percentages I want by the denomination of the machine. The hold percentage averages for the Las Vegas Strip are 11% for nickels, 6.5% for Quarters, 4.5% for dollars, and 3.5%for five dollars and above.

Also, gaming-wise to do that, it's not just going in and changing a chip. You have to go in and you actually have to take all of the money out of the machine. It's got to be returned to thecashier's cage, that money has to be counted and you have to assign a new number to that machine because that's a new machine once you change the e-prom. So, gaming regulations require you tochange the statistics on the whole new machine. It's a whole day process to do that. It's not just to go in and change the chip and leave and say “okay, I've tightened them up for the weekend.”

Bourie: Another thing many players believe is that “the best-paying machines are on the aisles.”

Marino: Not true. The best machines are on the aisle? I'll tell you what, that's a perception people have because most of them like to play machines on the aisle. They'll walkup and play the machines in the end because they don't want to play with somebody next to them. If you've got a guy playing here, here, and here, you're not going to go right next to thatguy. You're going to go to the end so there's nobody next to you. That's why we've gone to these round configurations. People don't like sitting next to each other. So, we're going moreand more to the round ones because people really like that a lot and these games do a lot better than the normal straight rows of slot machines. That's why I try to break them up with roundsdown the middle and slants.

But as far as the tighter and the looser machines, I set them up by model types. I mean, if I have a bank of quarter machines, I'll have a Double Diamond; a Red, White, and Blue; and mypercentages on those quarter machines are all the same. So, it doesn't matter which machine I put where.

Bourie: Then you wouldn’t have a situation where a high-paying machine would be sitting next to a low-paying machine?

Marino: No. If the machines were the same denomination on a particular bank the hold percentages would be virtually the same. In my dollar machines I order everything atbetween 4% and 5%. So, you're talking the difference between one percentage point and that's only because certain models are only available at certain percentages. I mean, I would never put an8% dollar machine next to one at 4%. I don't do that here. Some places might do that, I don't know. I try to give everybody an equal shot no matter what.

Bourie: So, there would be very little difference between a high machine and a low machine?

Marino: If I was going to set it up that way I would put the loosest machine in the middle as opposed to the end because they get the most play. That's why it appears tobe looser to the customer because it gets more play and more action and more people are playing it and it cycles more. And, it gets into those better cycles more often.

Bourie: Which brings us to the next question, “Do machines get ‘hot’ and payout more frequently?”

Marino: Sure they get hot, they also get cold. Through the cycle of a machine, it’s a percentage to pay out a certain amount over a period of time-based on the number ofhandles pulls the machine receives. However, the hot and cold cycles are random and indeterminable.

Bourie: When you order a slot machine do you have to tell the manufacturer what you want it to pay?

Marino: Yes.

Bourie: And, each manufacturer tells you the pre-approved percentages you can choose from?

Marino: That's correct. (goes to the shelf, pulls down a book and opens it to a page). This book contains all the available hold percentages for these particular models and thedenomination of a machine is what determines the hold percentage I would order for it.

This is what I order quarter machines at - 92.4% - which would be right around 7.5% holding for the house. If it's dollars, I order this one (around 95%) and for twenty-fives (around 97%) orhundreds (around 98%), it goes up, like that. If it's nickels, you start down here (around 89%). That's the way it works.

Now, over a period of time, this quarter machine is going to pay back 92.42% and it's going to hold around 7.5% for the house. And when I say over a period of time, that means over 10 millionhandle pulls.

Bourie: 10 million is the life cycle? On every machine?

Marino: 10 million is the number of handle pulls the manufacturer has determined it would take a particular machine to achieve that 7.5% hold calculation. Getting to thatnumber though may take a year. That means in January, that machine might be hot, or today it may be hot. So, I may be holding...it's a volatility index they call it...for the first two monthsof the cycle when that machine goes out on the floor, I may be in the negative. I may be paying out 400% or 500% on that game. But, the next month it may be tighter and at the end of thatcycle, it's going to hold at 8%.

Let me show you something else here. I just put these games on the floor last week. These are the new vision games from IGT (International Game Technology). These have been on the floorfor approximately 14 days. What I do is an analysis: the coin in, jackpots filled, and it tells me my win per day, per unit, and my payout percentage. Now, the first week, which is hardlyanything to analyze, but this machine is doing its handle per day. This is what it's handling, this is what it's winning, this is what it's holding: 5.72%. It actually should be at 4.92%.So, it's over holding by .80%. It's holding too much.

Bourie: So, you always have a variable there?

Marino: Right. There's a variance there. The next game on the row, okay, this one is not holding. It's half of what it should be holding.

Bourie: That's half of what it should be holding, based on what the manufacturer said?

Marino: Right. It should be holding 5.2%, the manufacturer said, and it's only holding 2.75%, but it's only been on the floor for two weeks. When you see a machine notholding...we do a comparison at the end of each month of winners and losers. Then we look at the coin in and we see how long they've been on the floor. Most of the time, I'll look at ayear-to-date number, or a lifetime number on the machine to see where they are actually at.

Bourie: Will this tell you how many actual pulls were made on that machine?

Marino: Sure. You just divide, or you go to the machine itself and you could see exactly how many handle pulls. Normally, you just divide it by the number of coins in and youcould tell the handle pulls. That's basically what we do, but we don't tighten them up, or loosen them up. Once they're out there, they're out there. The only time we do conversions is when wesee a model not getting enough play. Then we say it's not popular and we try something else.

Bourie: Do you ever have a problem, after a year, where a machine doesn’t make money for you?

Marino: No, usually a machine will hold what it is the percentage to hold if it’s had enough handle pulls. If they're supposed to hold 5%, they'll hold 5% after they've been onthe floor for a while Usually when they don't make money, they're holding what they are supposed to hold, but it's not enough for the house average. What you would do is take your bottom 20% ofyour machines and convert those to more popular models.

But to go back to what you were asking before, the hot and the cold factor? That's definitely true. The machine can be hot today and colder than anything tomorrow. It will pay out 400% today toyou and tomorrow it might take 400% from somebody else.

Bourie: Okay, but there's no way to tell if it’s going to stay hot, is there? It reminds me of when I talk to people about playing craps. They all say “just find a ‘hot’ crapgame.” I say, “fine, you may find a ‘hot’ crap game, but all you know is what happened in the past. You don't know what's going to happen in the future.”

Marino: Sure, It's the same as a “hot” slot machine, you just don't know what the next pull will bring.

Bourie: Right. But people say, “well if it's a ‘hot’ machine, it's going to keep paying out.” People are under the assumption that it's going to keep paying out, and I tellthem “no, it's purely luck.”

Marino: You’re right. They don't pay out forever. All it is, is luck. Being in the right place at the right time.

Bourie: How about this one: “don't play a machine that just hit a jackpot?”

Marino: Well, it doesn't matter.

Slot Machines Tips

Bourie: And that’s because the odds remain constant on every pull of the handle?

Marino: That's right.

Bourie: One last question. Do you have any suggestions for players?

Marino: Suggestions for players? The only suggestion I have is to just play the machine that you enjoy the most and that you have a good time at. I mean...I play a little bit.I go out with my wife and she’ll play video poker machines. I'll play video poker with her, but I just play the machines that I enjoy playing. I'll play machines that I see paying back the bestto the customer (by looking at the paytable). Those are the ones I'll look for, and locals do that. If you're a local customer, that's what you look for: the good video poker machines. Justlike Jeff (referring to Jeff Compton, author of the Las Vegas Advisor Guide to Slot Clubs) will tell you. He's an expert at video poker machines.

Rich’s answers were surprisingly candid and they certainly laid to rest some long-standing beliefs among slot players as to how slots are set up in a casino. For years slot players have alwaysbelieved that some machines were set much higher than others within a casino. Rich dispelled this myth by pointing out that all of his machines within a particular denomination were set to payback approximately the same amount. He pointed out that not all manufacturers offer the exact same percentages in their computer chips so there could be a difference of as high as 1% but youreally won’t find a situation where the one-quarter machine that’s set to return 92% would be sitting next to another quarter machine set to return 82%.

If you look at the numbers from the Nevada Gaming Control Board regarding the returns on slot machines that are shown in this book it certainly corroborates what Rich was saying. After all, ifthe average $1 machine returns 95% how much of a difference could there be between the high and the low? Do you think half of the $1 machines are set at 99% and the other half are set at 91% inorder to get that 95% average? Sorry, but it just doesn’t work that way. Yes, there are differences among machines but, once again, the amount is minimal and it probably amounts to no more than1%.

And what about the common belief that machines at the end of an aisle are set to return the most? Well, Rich killed that idea too. He explained that it just seems that end machines pay out moreoften simply because they've played more often.

This is somewhat akin to the “bad player” theory in blackjack. According to this theory, if there’s a bad player at the blackjack table who constantly makes poor decisions it will somehowaffect the order of the cards and cause the good players (who make correct playing decisions) to lose more often. The truth is that the bad player really has no effect on the game becausesometimes his decisions will hurt you and sometimes his decisions will help you. The problem is that you only tend to remember the situations where you lost because of his poor play and forgetthe times that you won because of his boneheaded moves.

This same theory can apply to slot machines at the end of an aisle. When you’re playing in a casino, or just walking through, you’ll only remember the times you saw people winning at machines,not losing. Since the end-of-the-aisle machines get more play, they will, of course, have more winners and people will tend to remember them as the better paying machines.

As far as constantly changing the payback percentages on the chips to make machines “looser” or “tighter” Rich pointed out that it’s not quite that simple and that changes are rarely madebecause of all the extra work that’s involved.

Can Slot Machines Be Remotely Controlled

In the July 1998 issue of Las Vegas Advisor this same subject was covered in an interview with three different Las Vegas casino slot managers and two officials from the Nevada GamingControl Board. The Advisor writer discovered that there actually are some slots where the percentages can be changed by flipping a switch, but it only applies to machines that are connectedtogether in a “bank” where they all share the same centralized chip. The vast majority of the machines in a casino, however, are not capable of this function as they each have their owninternal chip.

The Advisor story also went on to point out that Nevada law requires casinos to do paperwork whenever a chip is changed and it must be completed within 24 hours. Also, the casino must completeadditional accounting paperwork for filing with the state. Evidently, the process is so time-consuming the story concluded that “ no one we talked to even had a secondhand story of aNevada casino that frequently changes chips.”

One of the most common questions you’ll see about anything in the casino gambling industry relates to “honesty”. You’ll see this question asked about every casino game under the sun. You’ll also see it asked about every casino, especially the online gambling sites.

In this post, I want to address this specific question:

Are slot machines honest?

How Do You Define Honest?

When I use Google to look for a definition of honesty, I see some of the following definitions listed:

• “Free of deceit and untruthfulness”
• “Sincere”
• “Morally correct or virtuous”
• “Fairly earned, through hard work”

I think most people are thinking of the first definition when they ask whether slots games are honest. They want to make sure they’re not being cheated. In this context, the answer is yes, slot machines are honest. I’ll explain why in detail in the rest of this post.

In the second context, where “honest” means “sincere”—I’m less sure. Are the casinos sincere when they want you to think you’re able to win money? I think so, but they know in the long run, anyone who plays slots long enough will lose all their money.

In the third and fourth contexts, I’d have to say that slot machines are NOT honest. Slot machines are closer to morally neutral than they are to sinful, but you might have a different belief system about such things. It’s hard to say that slots don’t appeal to one of the seven deadly sins, though (greed).

I’m not sure anyone could (or would) consider money won on a slot machine “earned” or to have anything to do with “hard work”. It’s a game of luck. If you win, then you got lucky—it has nothing to do with working hard or being smart.

I’ll explain more about that later in this post, too.

How a Slot Machine Works Mathematically

Answering the question “are slot machines honest?” begins with learning how the games work mathematically. The math behind the games is easier to understand than most people probably think.

The first concept to understand is basic probability. When someone says “probability”, they’re talking about the mathematical likelihood that something is going to happen. That “something” is called an event.

The probability of an event is always represented as a number between 0 and 1. An event that will always occur no matter what has a probability of 1. An event that will never occur has a probability of 0. An event that will occur half the time has a probability of 0.5.

For simplicity’s sake, and to make understanding the concept easier, I just used whole numbers and decimals in the previous paragraph. But probabilities are almost always expressed as percentages or fractions.

How to Express Probability as a Percentage

You’re watching the evening news, and the meteorologist says there’s a 50% chance of rain tomorrow.

That means it’s just about as likely to rain as it is to not rain.

Here’s another example:

You flip a coin. You have a 50% chance of it landing on heads. You also have a 50% chance of it landing on tails.

If you add the probabilities of all possible events together, you always get a total of 1 (or 100%).

Probability is the mathematical engine that makes gambling games possible.

How to Calculate a Probability

Here’s how you calculate a probability:

You take the number of ways an event can happen. You divide that by all the total events possible (including what can happen and what happens if it doesn’t.)

You’re rolling a single six-sided die. You want to know the probability of getting a 6.

There are 6 possible outcomes. Only one of them is a 6.

The probability of getting a 6 is 1/6.

Another way to express that is using odds, which can be useful when calculating whether a bet is expected to be mathematically profitable or not.

Odds expresses the number of ways something can’t happen versus the number of ways it can happen.

In the six-sided die example, the odds of getting a 6 are 5 to 1. You have 5 ways of NOT rolling a 1, and only 1 way of rolling a 1.

If you want to calculate a probability that includes the word “or”, you add the probabilities of the events together.

If you want to calculate a probability that includes the word “and”, you multiply the probabilities by each other.

You want to know the probability of getting a 1 or a 2 on a roll of a six-sided die. The probability of each is 1/6.

1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6

You can reduce that to 1/3.

Here’s another example:

You roll 2 dice. You want to know the probability of getting a 6 on both dice. The probability of each is 1/6.

1/6 X 1/6 = 1/36

Applying Probability to a Simple Hypothetical Slot Machine Game

But how does all this apply to the honesty of slot machines?

I’ll use a super simple hypothetical slot machine game to explain how this probability affects the integrity of the game.

This super simple game has 3 symbols on each reel—an orange, a lemon, and a cherry.

The probability of getting a lemon on the first reel is 1/3.

The probability of getting a lemon on the second reel is also 1/3.

In fact, it’s the same on each reel.

But the game only pays off if you get 3 of the same symbol on each reel.

The probability of that is 1/3 X 1/3 X 1/3, or 1/9.

Let’s suppose the payoff for getting 3 lemons is 4 for 1.

And let’s suppose the payoff for getting 3 cherries is 3 for 1.

Finally, we’ll suppose the payoff for getting 3 oranges is even money.

• The probability of winning 4 coins is 1/9.
• The probability of winning 3 coins is also 1/9.
• The probability of winning 1 coin is also 1/9.
• The probability of winning nothing is 6/9, or 2/3.

Now let’s suppose you’re putting $1 in on every spin, and you play 9 spins, getting every possible result once.

You win 4 coins once. You win 3 coins once. You win 1 coin once. That’s a total of 8 coins you’ve won.

But you’ve inserted 9 coins into the game.

Where did the extra coin go?

In the pockets of the casino, that’s where.

By setting up the payoffs so that they’re lower than the odds of winning, the casino sets up a situation where it’s guaranteed a mathematical profit over the long run.

Of course, most modern slot machines aren’t quite this simple. They have more symbols on each reel, for one thing. For another, the probability of getting a particular symbol might be different from the probability of getting another symbol.

For example, you might have a 2/3 probability of getting a pear, and only a 1/24 probability of getting a cherry.

What Happens in the Long Run vs. the Short Term?

By manipulating the payoffs and the probabilities of the symbols, the casino can guarantee that over a long period and many spins, they’ll profit.

But in the short run, a player might win a big jackpot or lose several times in a row.

That’s the nature of random events. In the short run, anything can happen. In the long run, the numbers get closer to the theoretical probability.

This is obvious when you look at it with an extreme example.

On an infinite number of spins, your average loss per spin will mirror the mathematical expectation.

The closer you get to an infinite number of spins, the closer you’ll get to the mathematical expectation.

Do Slot Machines Cheat?

Can Slot Machines Be Controlled To Payout More Or Less

The casinos don’t need to cheat to make a healthy profit.

The slot machine designers and manufacturers don’t need to cheat to make a healthy profit.

In fact, in well-regulated jurisdictions (like Nevada), games are thoroughly audited for fairness. When they’re auditing a game for fairness, one of the things they check is whether a game has a jackpot that’s impossible to win.

That’s the main concern many players have when they ask if slot machines cheat.

Does the game have jackpots that are impossible to win?

The short answer in almost every case is no, they don’t.

But you have no way of knowing what the probability of winning that jackpot is. Slot machine games have opaque odds and probabilities. The results are generated by a computer program called a random number generator (RNG).

The only people who know the exact settings for that RNG are the designers and the casino managers.

In fact, you could be playing two identical slot machines located right next to each on the casino floor and have different odds of winning. Not only is this legal, it’s common.

Does that sound like cheating?

By the strict letter of the law, it’s not.

Is it honest?

I’d say yes. Having two games next to each other offering different odds is intentionally misleading. It’s legal, but it’s not sincere in any way.

Online slot machines are no different, except that in some cases, these games HAVE been known to cheat. But not reputable casinos and not reputable software providers.

How do they cheat?

They set up games which are impossible to win.

The reasons baffle me. You stand to make far more money in the long run if you offer an honest game.

Even an idiot can tell after a while that he’s never going to win a rigged casino game on the Internet.

But otherwise smart people will continue to deposit money and wager it at a breakneck pace if they’re winning something every now and then, even if they’re showing a net loss over time.

That’s how gambling works.

What About Video Poker Games?

You need to understand immediately that video poker games are NOT the same thing as slot machine games. They look similar on the surface, but the math and the gameplay couldn’t be more different. And the philosophy behind these games is different, too.

Here’s why:

A video poker machine uses a random number generator that duplicates the odds found in a 52-card deck of cards. You know the probability of getting a specific symbol. Any specific card has a 1/52 probability of appearing.

A card of a specific suit has a ¼ probability of appearing. A card of a specific rank has a 1/13 probability of appearing.

Payback Percentages and the House Edge

Knowing this enables mathematicians and computer programs to calculate the actual payback percentage for these games.

What’s a payback percentage?

It’s the percentage of each bet that’s paid back to the player on average in the long run. It’s the opposite of the house edge.

On a slot machine, you have no way of calculating a game’s payback percentage. It’s impossible, because you have no way of knowing the probability of getting a specific symbol.

But on a video poker game, you can calculate all the possibilities. And since you know how much the game pays out for various combinations, you can add the expected value of each to get an overall payback percentage for the game.

And you know what’s even better than this?

The payback percentages for video poker games are significantly higher than the payback percentages on slot machines in almost every case.

Even the worst video poker game usually has a payback percentage of 95% or so. But the better games offer payback percentages in the 98%+ range. Some (rare) games have pay tables which offer a slightly positive game for the player, like 100.2%. But those numbers assume perfect strategy on your part.

But even the best slot machine games usually have a payback percentage in the 95% range. The more common games slip down into the lower 92% or so range.

Expected Hourly Loss Rates in Slot Machine Games vs. Video Poker Games

What does this mean to your bankroll?

Let’s look at how much money you can mathematically expect to lose playing 2 different games:

We’ll start with an average slot machine game with a 94% payback percentage. You’re playing for $1 per spin, and you’re making 600 spins per hour. You expect to win 94% of each bet back, which means you expect to lose 6% of each bet.

6% of $600 is $36, which is the amount the casino expects you to lose on this game on average over time.

Then we’ll consider a 9/6 Jacks or Better game which you’re playing with perfect strategy. The payback percentage for this game is 99.54%, which means the house edge is 0.46%.

We’ll assume you’re playing a quarter machine and betting 5 coins per hand. You’re putting a little more money into action on each bet–$1.25. Most video poker players are as fast as slot machine players; they play 600 hands per hour. That’s $750/hour in action.

But with a house edge of 0.54%, your expected loss on that kind of action is only $3.77.

That’s right.

Playing slots costs you 10 times as much as playing video poker.

Video poker offers other advantages over slots, too. One of these is the skill element. You might not want to think about what you’re doing when you’re gambling.

But if you’re anything like me, you want to be able to at least exert a little bit of control over your destiny.

In video poker, you get to do that. The decisions you make playing each hand have a direct effect on your bottom line.

Play your hands well, and you’ll be playing one of the best gambling games in the house.

Should You Play Slot Machines at All?

This is a legitimate question. Should you play slot machines at all?

Here are some pros and cons of playing slots:

Pros:

Can Slot Machines Be Beat

• You can win bigger jackpots on slot machine games than any other gambling game except maybe keno. If you’re looking for a life-changing jackpot, like you’d see if you won a lotto drawing, slots are the way to go.
• They require little in the way of attention or effort on the part of the player. This suits some temperaments just fine. Relaxing in front of the spinning reels seems like a good deal for a lot of people.
• They’re available in an endless variety. You can find a slot machine game with any theme you can imagine. Love Elvis Presley? You’ll find a slot machine for it. Play Dungeons & Dragons when you were 12? There’s a slot for that, too. The themes and games are almost endless.

Cons:

• They offer some of the worst odds in the house. The house edge for slot machines vary widely. Some of them might offer good odds, but most of them have a house edge of between 5% and 10%. This isn’t awful. After all, roulette has a house edge of 5.26%. The problem is that slots play so fast that you can easily put more money into an action than you thought you could.
• You can’t figure out what the odds are. I have a philosophical problem with slot machine games. No other casino game is opaque about your odds. You can calculate the house edge for any table game in the casino. You can calculate it for video poker, too. But you’re never given the information you need to figure out the house edge on a slot machine. This is unacceptable to me.
• They’re designed to be addictive. Slot machine manufacturers spend millions doing research into what kinds of stimuli are going to put most people into the “flow” state. Flow is great if you’re interested in personal productivity at work, but if you’re playing a gambling game, it’s awful. No other casino game is as addictive as a slot machine.

Conclusion

Yes, slot machines are honest—in a manner of speaking, anyway. Casinos don’t make claims about slot machines that are blatantly untrue. If a game has a maximum jackpot of $1 million, you do have a chance of winning that much money.

Can Slot Machines Be Rigged

What you don’t know is how likely or unlikely it is to win that amount.

Is this disingenuous on the part of the casinos?

I think it is, at least to some extent.

But all casino games have math behind them that puts the odds in the casino’s favor. That’s just the nature of the games. Slots are no different in that respect.

No matter which casino game you play, if you stick with it long enough, you’ll eventually lose all your money.

The only exceptions are certain games that can be played with advantage techniques, but that’s another subject entirely.

The only way for you to get an edge against a slot machine game is to cheat.

In most jurisdictions, cheating is blatantly illegal. You’re better off learning to play poker at an expert level, or learning how to count cards in blackjack.